There is a marked difference between the 1209 campaign and the ones which preceded it. The Mongol impact on the Tangut state during the 1205 raid was a by-product of the party needing to resupply and identify where Senggum had gone, and its effects were relatively limited; in 1207 the Mongol raid clearly had a larger impact on Da Xia as the Mongols encamped at Wulahai, but it is still not clear that the Tangut state was the primary target of this attack. In 1209 Da Xia was the target and this was a planned campaign of conquest.
Universal Khan
An Quan was not, or should not, have been viewed as a competitor for the title of Universal Khan; however, the emperor’s support for Senggum may have drawn Da Xia into steppe politics making them a viable target. Maybe Senggum’s perceived alliance with the Tanguts increased his threat level as he now had the backing of a foreign power. There was a danger that he would follow in the footsteps of his father, Toghoril, and return to the steppe. Would this be enough to launch a full campaign against a powerful, organised nation? I think it could be. Chinggis has shown us that he was insecure and vengeful enough to punish those he perceived as a threat; he wanted to kill his brother Khasar because of rumours, and he would spend a decade hunting down rival tribal leaders. If the 1207 raid had been stalled due to Tangut diplomatic and physical obstruction, then it had proved that the Tangut supported the Kereyid. I think we can tentatively say that the Universal Khan was still influencing decision-making at this point.
The Climate
In the previous episode we noted that 1206 was a particularly arid year, following on from several drier than average ones. 1207 and 1208 brought an increase of moisture on the steppe which suggests that the search for pasturage was no longer a primary concern for the Mongols. Although the arid conditions would return in 1209 and continue into 1210, the effects of the reduced rainfall would likely have been felt after the departure of the Mongol army to northwest China; so it seems that an arid climate was unlikely to have been a factor in this attack. However, the wetter climate conditions may have helped enable the campaign. There would have been increased grass yields which could support larger herds; two years of increased resources may have given the Mongols the supplies they needed to undertake such a complex campaign.
The Sources
The sources do not note anything relating to the Universal Khan or climate, however the XiXia Shushi states that in 1209 two Jurchen rebels came to Chinggis to urge him to attack the Jin empire, a request that the Mongol khan was receiving with increasing regularity. In 1206 Chinggis received requests to support a Khitan uprising; in 1208 four Jin officers deserted the Jurchen army and joined the Mongols. The noises coming from northern China suggested that there was a lot of discontent and that there was an increasing opportunity for the Mongols to profit from it if Chinggis Khan was so inclined.
The decision to attack the Jin was complicated. The Mongol relationship with the Jurchen was scarred with insults which were yet to be paid back; on the other hand, Chinggis Khan’s own relationship with northern China was possibly one of subservience, and whatever his feeling towards the Jin, he may have been uneasy breaking any agreements which were in place. He may not yet have felt particularly confident that his army could match the Jin in battle, in part because a war with the Jurchen would likely have meant war with Da Xia. As junior partner to the Jin, there may have been an expectation that they would provide military assistance if requested, and 1207 had revealed the strength, organisation and competency of the Tangut army. A war against Da Xia and Jin may have also provided an opening for Senggum to return to Mongolia; ultimately an attack against Jin was too risky.
At this stage, I’m not sure that there was the grand strategic plan in place as favoured by H Desmond Martin, but I think war against Jin was an increasingly credible idea. I think its likely that the Jurchen dissidents brought information that may have shifted Chinggis’ strategic focus towards a full-scale attack on Da Xia, namely that Jin was unlikely to get involved in a war between the Tanguts and the Mongols.
Clearly there’s a lot of speculation surrounding Mongol motivations for 1209, but let’s lay out what we’ve identified:
- Regardless of the reality, the 1207 raid established in Mongol minds an alliance between Senggum and Da Xia and it had the power to dethrone Chinggis Khan. Resolving this situation was now a priority.
- Émigrés from Jin brought news to Chinggis of growing discontent and instability in northern China, and they urged a Mongol attack against the Jurchen.
- Although tempting, success was not guaranteed and was politically complicated.
- These refugees also brought news of Jurchen attitudes towards their neighbours which included information that they may not intervene in a war between the Mongols and the Tanguts.
- Improved climate conditions in Mongolia had allowed the Mongols pastoralist economy to grow large enough to support a full-scale attack across the Gobi Desert.
- War against Da Xia was go!